The state of change in our world is speeding up. How will our world change while I’m away?
Consider that in the year 250 BCE, the world had reached the level of one terabyte of stored data in the form of books, scrolls, etc. Humans now create 403 million terabytes of data each day. And this amount is rising at a steady rate between 20 and 30% each year.
500 years ago, the typical well-educated adult would consume around 74 gigabytes of information in their lifetime. Today, the average person consumes 74 gigabytes in one day through computers, phones, advertising, television, and those little TV screens in the back of taxi cabs. This is up from an estimated 34 GB of data consumed each day in 2009.
Back when my father was born, our currency was tied to the amount of gold the US had stored in a fort in Kansas. Yet today the US economy, and that of most of the world, is chiefly comprised of digital representations of money. I recently read that 92% of the money we own, earn, and spend exists only on computers. If you think about it, most people receive direct deposits, pay with debit cards, and receive many goods and services through their computers. The currency is just a number on a small screen at the ATM. (And who the hell goes to ATMs anymore?)
I was gifted $12 worth of BitCoin over a decade ago. It has increased in value by 15,415.00%. But I still think of it as $12. Is money even real anymore if we don’t fold it up and stick it in our pocket?
Another huge change has been in our physical safety. Despite what you see on the news each day, statistically speaking, it’s never been safer to get in a car, or an airplane, or go to school, or do your job, or walk down the street. Violence has declined dramatically for centuries. Workplace and transportation safety has improved. Life expectancy and medical advancements are on the rise.
But at the same time, we have never been more anxious, unnerved, and afraid as a society. More people are in therapy now than at any point in history.
Wars are constant, but warfare has changed dramatically. Wars are being waged online using hacking techniques and deep fake video and audio. Ukraine recently destroyed a third of Russia’s long-range bomber fleet using remote-piloted drones anyone can buy on Amazon.
And speaking of Amazon, when was the last time you went to a K-Mart or Sears? That’s not mere change — it’s dramatic and disruptive change. Instead of going shopping, to the movies or to a restaurant anymore, we go to Amazon, fire up Netflix or order DoorDash.
It is all around us. Change is happening so rapidly that most people can’t even hope to keep up. And so they don’t even try. For many people who live on this tiny blue-green spec in the Mily-Way galaxy, it’s as if change is not happening at all. We live our lives, observing a narrow band of information, concerned only with the creature comforts and diversions on our tiny-screened devices. The changes that do not affect us go by largely unacknowledged, unnoticed, unconsidered.
Technology? Don’t get it.
Political change? All politics is corrupt.
Ecological change? I recycle…
Economic change? Big numbers go up and down.
Oh, but there’s a new trend on Instagram…!
We’ve reached the point where things are happening so quickly that they have gone past the “blur” stage and they have pretty much disappeared. And like a bullet or light in the IR spectrum, you need special equipment to even detect it at all.
When I was a kid, very little changed in a decade. Today seismic changes seem to happen on a daily basis. And, as I prepare to take this trip around the world, I have to wonder: will I recognize my world at all when I get back? Here are the changes I am looking at and some predictions for when I return.
Technology in our lives.
Commercially available AI is just getting started. In my industry, I have seen the fields of design, copywriting, project management, acting, and media impacted by AI. Adoption has reached the end of the hockey stick. With AI it is possible (but as of this writing not 100% practical because clients want to make changes) to produce advertising and communications projects that once cost $500,000 for a couple of thousand dollars worth of time and computing power.
Prediction: When I return from my trip, most of the impact that AI has on us economically and socially will be accepted as the norm. Nothing will be real. No information can be fully trusted. But we will begin to see a movement toward authenticity and experience. People who can do things like write, and create art, and speak, and make things without the aid of technology will be fewer and therefore more valuable in society. People who can do things in the real world will begin to have power.
Domestic politics.
The 24-hour news cycle is spinning out of control. All screens seem to be tuned to the White House. A new crisis is manufactured seemingly every day to take our attention away from the bad things people did the day before. The Constitution is being stress-tested in ways that we have never seen.
Prediction: When I get back, the mid-term elections will be over and the majority of the House and Senate will begin to investigate the current administration. This, at the very least, will have a calming effect on the rate at which the administration pushes for changes in immigration and social services. It’s a coin toss whether the current president will serve out his term. Unfortunately, it’s also a coin toss regarding the likelihood of a rise in political violence.
International conflicts.
Wars, conflicts, and humanitarian crises continue while many people in the US have no real understanding of the geopolitical ramifications or the impact it may have in our own homes. The Israel/Gaza/Iran/Yemen/Saudi crisis is getting worse. Russia/Ukraine shows very bleak prospects for a cease-fire. Tensions in other parts of the world are heightened.
Prediction: The diplomatic ineptitude of the current US administration represents an outsized opportunity for the EU and China to become growing sources for mediation. This is the world’s best hope to stop the violence and bring calm to explosive corners of the world. The only improvements we will see will come from ideas and actions outside the US.
Personal stuff
I don’t want to go into too much detail here about my personal life, which is largely positive. I’m in good physical health. I’m happy. I’m planning a cool trip. That said, change happens and so I expect new things in the coming year — some potentially dramatic, some subtle.
Prediction: I’ve reached a point in my life where the people I love are starting to die at a greater rate. This is just a part of what it means to be in one’s sixties. I hope it does not happen, obviously, but it is conceivable that while I’m traveling, I will get a call and will need to return to the US for a funeral. I’m looking into travel insurance options that will cover the unplanned flight back. Another thing that will change me as a person will be a year with less connection to media. With Jason Tatum recovering from Achilles surgery, I may even spend less time watching my beloved Boston Celtics basketball while on the road. I’m hoping that spending less time consuming screens will mean more time filling up screens with words and that I will come home with one or possibly two book projects completed or nearly so.
I also hope to come back with a much deeper understanding of what it means to be a finite presence in an infinite universe on a planet of eight billion people.
Not everything will change all that much. Fortunately, I can be reasonably certain I will return to an island that resists change better than most places, so I predict very little will happen on the local level in my absence.